Market Insights ON – European transport in the shadow of geopolitics

The European transport and logistics sector has entered a new phase. Geopolitics is no longer a distant strategic risk – it is increasingly influencing day-to-day operational decisions, including route selection, choice of business partners and technology adoption.

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Geopolitics has stopped being a background issue. It has become an operational factor

The European transport and logistics sector has entered a new phase. Geopolitics is no longer a distant strategic risk – it is increasingly influencing day-to-day operational decisions, including route selection, choice of business partners and technology adoption.

These conclusions stem from the Market Insights ON report, prepared by experts from Trans.eu and CargoON. The report shows that the resilience of supply chains in 2026–2027 will depend not only on cost efficiency, but above all on the ability to adapt to sudden political, regulatory and infrastructural shocks.

The studies cited in the report illustrate the scale of the challenges:

• 74% of global logistics managers identify geopolitics as the greatest threat to supply chains,
• 92% of European companies expect further increases in import and export costs,
• while at the same time only 5% of organisations declare full preparedness for major disruptions.

This highlights a key paradox of modern logistics: a high level of risk awareness does not always translate into operational readiness.

The increasingly discussed concept of the so-called “solidarity pool” in Brussels further underscores this shift in thinking. The initiative envisages the creation of a register of privately owned transport and logistics assets – such as trucks, trailers, cranes or transhipment infrastructure – which could be temporarily made available for security and defence purposes in crisis situations.

For large international logistics operators, this means a growing need to take security considerations and public-sector regulation into account in operational planning, without altering the fundamentally civilian nature of the sector. Logistics remains a market-driven activity; however, it increasingly operates in an environment where administrative, geopolitical and infrastructural decisions can, within a short period of time, significantly affect the availability of assets, routes and transport capacity.

Małaszewicze – When one decision disrupts half the continent

The report uses Małaszewicze as a case study illustrating how vulnerable the European logistics network remains to sudden disruptions.

The two-week closure of the Polish–Belarusian border in September 2025:

• blocked a key rail corridor connecting China with the European Union,
• halted more than 100 freight trains as well as thousands of trucks,
• and generated losses amounting to hundreds of millions of euros for companies and the transport sector.

Małaszewicze, through which approximately 90% of rail-based imports from China to the EU pass, serves as a strategic transshipment point at the interface between broad-gauge and European-standard rail networks. Its temporary unavailability quickly exposed the systemic nature of disruptions within European supply chains.

Rail freight arriving from China is not destined solely for the Polish market. The majority of goods are further distributed to key logistics hubs in Western Europe, including Duisburg in Germany as well as ports and distribution centres in the Netherlands and Belgium. As a result, the disruption of a single transshipment node translated into delays and congestion at terminals hundreds of kilometres away.

Domino effect: The report demonstrates that such events trigger a domino effect, rapidly spreading across the entire European Union — affecting rail and road operators, inland and seaports, and ultimately end customers in the EU’s economic core.

In response to this growing unpredictability, China has intensified efforts to develop alternative transport corridors, including routes through Central Asia and new maritime connections, aimed at reducing reliance on a single transit route.

Resilience is not built in excel

The report challenges the common assumption that supply chain resilience can be achieved solely through:

• demand forecasting,
• cost analytics,
• inventory optimisation.

Experts emphasise that genuine resilience is based on two fundamental pillars:

• Shock resistance – the extent to which a disruption reduces the operational performance of the system,
• Recovery capacity – the speed at which an organisation is able to restore operational balance.

Achieving this requires more than technology alone. It depends on system-level coordination, international cooperation and the ability to operate effectively under conditions of incomplete information.

Open platforms and data as the “control towers” of logistics

One of the strongest conclusions of the report concerns the role of open, interoperable logistics platforms.

In an environment where:

• routes can be closed without warning,
• borders are becoming increasingly unpredictable,
• and transport capacity is constrained,

information emerges as a key strategic resource.

Open platforms:

• integrate data from TMS, WMS, ERP and telematics systems,
• enable real-time information exchange,
• allow faster rerouting of shipments, access to substitute capacity and anticipation of disruptions.

Core message: As the authors of the report emphasise, supply chain resilience no longer depends on its weakest link, but on the speed at which data flows between its components.

Trends for 2026–2027: More expensive, more Local, more digital

The MION report identifies several key trends shaping the coming years:

• regionalisation of supply chains and shorter transport routes,
• rising transport costs (ETS2, Fit for 55, fuel prices and regulatory pressure),
• growing cybercrime risks in logistics,
• greater caution regarding Chinese dominance in ports and infrastructure,
• increasing pressure for digitalisation as a market standard rather than a competitive advantage.

At the same time, the report warns against the misapplication of AI, which is too often used for post-factum analysis instead of enabling real-time response.